U.S. Job Flows and the China Shock -- by Brian J. Asquith, Sanjana Goswami,...
International trade exposure affects job creation and destruction along the intensive margin (job flows due to expansions and contractions of firms' employment) as well as along the extensive margin...
View ArticleJob Tasks, Time Allocation, and Wages -- by Ralph Stinebrickner, Todd R....
While a burgeoning literature has extolled the conceptual virtues of directly measuring the underlying job tasks that define work activities, in practice task-based approaches have been hampered by...
View ArticleEndowments, Skill-Biased Technology, and Factor Prices: A Unified Approach to...
We develop a multi-factor, multi-sector Eaton-Kortum model in order to examine the impact of trade costs, factor endowments, and technology (both Ricardian and factor-augmenting) on factor prices,...
View ArticleReconsidering the Consequences of Worker Displacements: Firm versus Worker...
Displaced workers suffer persistent earnings losses. This stark finding has been established by following workers in administrative data after mass layoffs under the presumption that these are...
View ArticleWhy are Banks Exposed to Monetary Policy? -- by Sebastian Di Tella, Pablo Kurlat
We propose a model of banks' exposure to movements in interest rates and their role in the transmission of monetary shocks. Since bank deposits provide liquidity, higher interest rates allow banks to...
View ArticleA Stream of Prospects or a Prospect of Streams: On the Evaluation of...
Recent debate has identified important gaps in the understanding of intertemporal risks. Critical to closing these gaps is evidence on which dimension of intertemporal risk - the risk or the time - is...
View ArticleHigh Wage Workers Work for High Wage Firms -- by Katarina Borovickova, Robert...
We develop a new approach to measuring the correlation between the types of matched workers and firms. Our approach accurately measures the correlation in data sets with many workers and firms, but a...
View ArticleHousehold Inequality and the Consumption Response to Aggregate Real Shocks --...
To what extent does household inequality affect the response of aggregate consumption to aggregate real shocks? We first review two state-of-the-art papers with household heterogeneity and aggregate...
View ArticleThe Marginal Product of Climate -- by Tatyana Deryugina, Solomon Hsiang
We develop an empirical approach to value changes to a climate in terms of total market output given optimal factor allocations in general equilibrium. Our approach accounts for unobservable...
View ArticleShrinking the Cross Section -- by Serhiy Kozak, Stefan Nagel, Shrihari Santosh
We construct a robust stochastic discount factor (SDF) that summarizes the joint explanatory power of a large number of cross-sectional stock return predictors. Our method achieves robust out-of-sample...
View ArticleWages and Employment: The Canonical Model Revisited -- by Audra Bowlus, Eda...
The basic canonical model fails to predict the aggregate college premium outside of the original sample period (1963-1987) or to account for the observed deviations in college premia for younger vs....
View ArticleA New Index of Debt Sustainability -- by Olivier J. Blanchard, Mitali Das
Debt sustainability is fundamentally a probabilistic concept: Debt is rarely sustainable with probability one. We propose an index of external debt sustainability that reflects this uncertainty. Namely...
View ArticleNew Evidence of Generational Progress for Mexican Americans -- by Brian...
U.S.-born Mexican Americans suffer a large schooling deficit relative to other Americans, and standard data sources suggest that this deficit does not shrink between the 2nd and later generations....
View ArticleThe Long-run Effects of Agricultural Productivity on Conflict, 1400-1900 --...
This paper provides evidence of the long-run effects of a permanent increase in agricultural productivity on conflict. We construct a newly digitized and geo-referenced dataset of battles in Europe,...
View ArticleLeaving Money on the Table? Suboptimal Enrollment in the New Social Pension...
China's recently implemented New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS), the largest social pension program in the world, was designed to provide financial protection for its rural population and reduce economic...
View ArticleCredit Default Swaps, Agency Problems, and Management Incentives -- by...
We show in a theoretical model that credit default swaps induce managerial agency problems through two channels: reducing the opportunity for managers to transfer value to equityholders from creditors...
View ArticleEnvironmental, Social, and Governance Criteria: Why Investors are Paying...
We find that money managers could reduce portfolio risk by incorporating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria into their investment process. ESG-related issues can cause sudden...
View ArticleWho Becomes an Inventor in America? The Importance of Exposure to Innovation...
We characterize the factors that determine who becomes an inventor in America by using de-identified data on 1.2 million inventors from patent records linked to tax records. We establish three sets of...
View ArticleThe Effect of Court-Ordered Hiring Guidelines on Teacher Composition and...
This paper examines the effect of a court-ordered hiring guidelines intended to increase the share of black teachers employed in a school district in Louisiana. We find that the court-ordered hiring...
View ArticleThe Social Origins of Inventors -- by Philippe Aghion, Ufuk Akcigit, Ari...
In this paper we merge three datasets - individual income data, patenting data, and IQ data - to analyze the determinants of an individual's probability of inventing. We find that: (i) parental income...
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